Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tiago Antunes, ECFR associate senior fellow at and former Portuguese secretary of state for European affairs; and Nicu Popescu, ECFR distinguished policy fellow and former Moldovan deputy prime minister and foreign minister. Mark, Tiago and Nicu discuss the proposal for a European Preparedness Act, inspired by the US Defense Production Act, which aims to enhance the EU’s ability to mobilise resources swiftly in response to crises. The conversation explores the rationale behind the act, the political and institutional challenges to its implementation, and how it could strengthen EU member states, and closely linked partners like Moldova and Ukraine.What would an EU-wide preparedness mechanism look like in practice? Should Brussels or the EU member states wield emergency powers in a crisis? And can Europe unite behind a shared vision of resilience before the next predicament hits?Bookshelf:Law of duty: The case for a US-inspired EU Preparedness Act by Tiago AntunesThey thought they were free by Milton Mayer À la table des diplomates: L'histoire de France racontée à travers ses grands repas by Laurent StefaniniThis podcast was recorded on May 28th 2025.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme director, for an emergency room episode diving into the dire situation in Gaza. After the March ceasefire collapsed, Israel’s intensified offensive—where it plans to occupy 75% of the strip—and an 80-day humanitarian blockade have pushed Gaza into famine. The controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a private US-led initiative bypassing UNRWA, has faltered, with its head resigning amid claims it enables displacement rather than aid. Mark and Julien discuss what the EU can do to address the crisis and attempt to shift Israel’s course—as European leaders sharpen their criticism and review their trade ties. Is Europe finally finding its voice? Or is it too late to alter Gaza’s trajectory? This podcast was recorded on 27 May.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former assistant secretary general at NATO and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, and Ivan Rogers, formerly Britain’s permanent representative to the EU, adviser for Europe and global issues to David Cameron, and principle private secretary to Tony Blair. It has been four days after the EU-UK summit and the dust is settling—but questions remain. Together, Mark, Camille and Ivan dive into the security and defence pact, the political asymmetries behind the deal, and what it means for Britain’s domestic landscape. How does the new EU-UK security and defence pact compare to other deals with global partners? Has the UK’s position as demandeur reshaped its leverage, and is this really a win for Europe? And what role will the summit deal play in the Labour government’s European strategy?Bookshelf:Allies at War: The Politics of Defeating Hitler by Tim BouverieRépublique impériale by Raymond Aron This podcast was recorded on May 22nd.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for an emergency room episode dissecting Sunday’s pivotal elections in Poland and Romania. Their discussion, which was recorded after high-stakes voting had taken place across Portugal, Poland and Romania, zooms in on some surprising outcomes. Romania’s liberal candidate, Dan Barna, defied polls to defeat far-right contender George Simion, while Poland’s presidential race heads to a tight runoff between liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and right-wing Karol Nawrocki. With Poland’s right-wing bloc commanding 54% in the first round, the stakes are high for Europe’s liberal project. Can Poland replicate Romania’s liberal surge? Or will populism reshape the region’s trajectory? This podcast was recorded on May 19. 

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mij Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group and ECFR council member, for an emergency room episode dissecting the long-awaited EU-UK summit.  While the summit’s agreement sets precedents on policies including an agri-food deal, and a security and defence partnership, it falls short of achieving ambitious goals like a customs union. Mark and Mij’s discussion, recorded as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European Council president Antonio Costa and British prime minister Keir Starmer announce the summit’s outcomes, delves into how the EU-UK reset has been marked by such progress—alongside continued unresolved tensions.   Amid domestic political pressures, and within a fragmented global order, can this summit lay the foundation for deeper cooperation? Or is it simply one cautious step in a deeply fraught political landscape?  This podcast was recorded on May 19.

Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and senior policy fellow, to discuss how President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could reshape Europe’s political landscape. Their conversation builds on Célia’s recent policy brief, “MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe”: she argues that, while Trump’s foreign policy may appear impulsive, it follows a clear ideological playbook which casts Europe not as a partner, but as a target for intimidation, transformation or outright subjugation.Together, Mark and Célia explore what Trump’s worldview means for key European actors and consider how his second-term agenda could erode transatlantic trust. Can Europe push back effectively? Have European leaders grasped the scale of the challenge, or are they still hoping for appeasement? And what would a “MAGA-shaped Europe” look like by the end of Trump’s term?Bookshelf: MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe by Célia BelinOne Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez

Far from a grand bargain, the US-China trade deal rolls back President Donald Trump’s post-Liberation Day tariff spiral—which peaked at 145%—to pre-April levels. This will avert empty US shelves, but leaves underlying tensions unresolved. In this emergency room episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to dissect the recent de-escalation, which the parties agreed this week in Geneva. The conversation explores who holds the upper hand, the prospects for a 90-day negotiation period, and the broader clash between deal-making instincts and systemic rivalry. For Europe, caught between US pressure and a less desperate China, the stakes are high as it navigates an upcoming EU-China summit. Is this a fleeting truce or a sign of deeper shifts in global trade?This episode was recorded on May 14.

As of May 6th, Germany has a new government, led by the CDU’s Friedrich Merz in coalition with the CSU and SPD. Despite a last-minute hitch, Merz is now safely installed in the Bundeskanzleramt in Berlin, from where he immediately jetted off to Paris and Warsaw for high-level political meetings. In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR editorial director and senior policy fellow, and Jana Puglierin, ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow, to discuss the new German government and the legacy of the previous “traffic light” coalition. How will Merz’s government differ to its predecessor? What will its main challenges be? And what does Merz’s embarrassing first round defeat in the Bundestag suggest for the rest of his term?This podcast was recorded on May 8th, 2025.Bookshelf:Podcast | What’s next for Berlin?From fence-sitter to pace-setter: How Merz’s Germany can lead Europe by Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin